Economic development has become inseparable from environmental and social conditions. The challenge of the energy transition will inevitably involve profound changes in the economy. With this in mind, financial institutions will play a central role in the conduct and success of this transformation. The conclusions of the “pilot climate exercise” conducted by the ACPR in 2020 show in summary that the exposure of French institutions to the sectors most affected by the risk of transition, as identified in this exercise (extractive industries, refining, refining, oil, agriculture, etc.), is currently relatively low. However, several studies highlight the need to strengthen the knowledge, projection and modeling of these sectoral and intra-sectoral transformations that will be induced by the transition to a carbon neutral economy by 2050.

In this context, the Research Initiative “Energy Transition and Transformation of Economic Models” aims to identify and understand the evolutions of economic models linked to the energy transition in a sectoral and regional approach, in order to better support CACL customers in their transitions. This research project brings together specialists in macroeconomics, finance, and environmental economics. It aims to contribute to the development and dissemination in academic and professional circles of recent advances in research in the field of energy transition and related economic modeling.

The project consists of 3 main stages:

• Describe and analyze in a theoretical and quantitative way the chain of impacts and sectoral/intra-sectoral interactions on the basis of various transition scenarios (which involves the construction of one or more scenarios beforehand).
• Identify and understand changes in economic models (forecasting and analysing opportunities and risks).
• Propose an application on the local economy and then possibly on the customer portfolio.

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